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New Report on the Uninsured Post-Reform

According to the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, approximately two-thirds of California’s 7 million uninsured will be eligible for affordable health insurance after all of the ACA’s coverage expansions and other provisions are implemented. But simply because the vast majority of the uninsured will be eligible for coverage doesn’t mean they will be covered.

The Urban Institute just released this report, funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, that estimates the number and composition of the uninsured state by state, following full implementation of the ACA.

According to the report, nationally, among uninsured nonelderly adults:

  • 37%, mostly young singles without dependents, will be eligible for Medicaid, but not enrolled.
  • 25% will be undocumented immigrants.
  • 16% will be exempt from the individual mandate because they would not have an affordable insurance option.
  • 8% will be eligible for affordable subsidized coverage in the health benefit exchanges.
  • The remaining 15 %—most higher-income families with dependents—will likely be subject to the mandate, having an affordable private insurance option despite not qualifying for a subsidy.

The report also estimates regional variations and some state-level detail, using a sophisticated simulation model. Hope you find this helpful in thinking about the post-reform residually uninsured populations.