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A Defining Moment

Broad consensus surrounds the viable path that should now be taken in Congress: Pass the Senate Bill and Fix it Through Reconciliation. Paul Krugman lays it out quite bluntly , and 47 of the nation’s leading health policy experts have signed on, as well. Below are our thoughts for your reference, and a reminder of what will occur if Congress falters:

Weighing the Options in Federal Reform
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The Consequences of Reform Failure

From the White House Council of Economic Advisers:

-Health care expenditures would likely rise from their current level of 18 percent of GDP to 28 percent in 2030 and 34 percent in 2040
-The number of uninsured people in the United States would rise from 46 million in 2007 to 72 million in 2040
-Essentially all of the rise in average employee compensation due to increasing productivity over time would go to health insurance, and essentially none would go to take-home wages
-Steeply rising Medicare and Medicaid spending will be amplified by a 65% increase (25 million people) in the 65+ population resulting in unsustainable increases in the budget deficit

From the Urban Institute Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model:

-The amount of uncompensated care would more than double in 45 states
-Every state would see Medicaid/CHIP spending rise by 75%
-Every state would see the employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) population degrade
-27 states would see ESI premiums double, and 46 states would see employer costs increase by 60%
-The number of uninsured would increase by more than 30% in at least 27 states

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